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How The Vitality Coverage Simulators Work And Are Developed

By Robbie Orvis

The free and open-source Vitality Coverage Simulator (EPS) laptop mannequin developed by Vitality Innovation Coverage & Expertise LLCTM has change into one of the broadly used instruments to tell policymakers and regulators about which local weather and power insurance policies will scale back greenhouse gasoline emissions most successfully, creating the biggest financial and public well being advantages.

With EPS fashions now utilized in 10 international locations and 48 states throughout America, we’re usually requested how the EPS works and what peer evaluate it has undergone by way of its improvement.

The EPS is a System Dynamics laptop mannequin created in Vensim, a device produced by Ventana Methods for the creation and simulation of System Dynamics fashions. The mannequin is designed for use with the free Vensim Mannequin Reader, and instructions on acquiring Vensim Mannequin Reader and the EPS can be found on the Obtain and Set up web page. As an open-source modeling device, customers can entry the mannequin by way of the energypolicy.options web site. To make use of superior options or modify its enter knowledge, customers might obtain the EPS and run it regionally on their Mac or Home windows PC. All the enter knowledge is meticulously cited, publicly out there, and freely accessible and editable, with outcomes up to date immediately.

The EPS permits customers to mannequin quite a few insurance policies that have an effect on power use and emissions together with a renewable portfolio customary, gas economic system requirements for autos, business methane requirements, incentives for clear power applied sciences like we see within the Inflation Discount Act, and accelerated R&D development of varied applied sciences. These insurance policies may be utilized throughout each main sector of the economic system together with transportation, electrical energy provide, buildings, business, agriculture, and land use. The EPS additionally contains smaller elements like hydrogen provide, district warmth, waste administration, and geoengineering.

The mannequin stories outputs at annual intervals and gives quite a few outputs, together with:

  • Emissions of 12 completely different pollution together with carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and nice particulate matter, in addition to carbon dioxide equal (CO2e) which measures the worldwide warming potential of varied pollution.
  • Direct money move (value or financial savings) impacts on authorities, non-energy industries, labor and shoppers, and 5 energy-supplying industries.
  • Direct, oblique, and induced impacts on jobs, GDP, and worker compensation, as an entire or disaggregated into 36 financial classes.
  • Untimely mortality and 10 different health-related outcomes prevented from diminished major and secondary particulate air pollution.
  • The composition and output of the electrical energy sector (e.g., capability and technology from coal, pure gasoline, wind, photo voltaic, and many others.).
  • Automobile know-how market shares and fleet composition together with electrical autos.
  • Vitality use by gas sort from numerous energy-using applied sciences together with particular kinds of autos and constructing elements.
  • Breakdowns of how every coverage inside a coverage bundle contributes to complete abatement and the cost-effectiveness of every coverage (e.g., wedge diagrams and price curves).
  • Gas imports and exports, and related expenditures or revenues.

All methodologies underpinning the EPS have undergone intensive peer evaluate as they have been developed, and we frequently search enter from outdoors specialists to change the methodologies to deal with any issues which might be raised. Parts of the mannequin have been reviewed by people from prestigious establishments together with:

  • American Council for an Vitality-Environment friendly Economic system
  • Argonne Nationwide Laboratory
  • Lawrence Berkeley Nationwide Laboratory
  • Massachusetts Institute of Expertise
  • Nationwide Renewable Vitality Laboratory
  • RMI
  • Stanford College
  • Tufts College
  • College of Chicago
  • U.S. Environmental Safety Company
  • World Assets Institute
National labs, universities, and partners who have peer reviewed the Energy Policy Simulator

Nationwide labs, universities, and companions who’ve peer reviewed the Vitality Coverage Simulator

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